Top highlights from The Great Mental Models
You cant improve if you dont know what youre doing wrong.
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I need to listen well so that I hear what is not said.
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I dont want to be a great problem solver. I want to avoid problemsprevent them from happening and doing it right from the beginning.
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A man who has committed a mistake and doesnt correct it, is committing another mistake.
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There are two ways to handle such a world: try to predict, or try to prepare.
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Far more probability estimates are wrong on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. Youll rarely read about an investor who aimed for 25% annual return rates who subsequently earned 40% over a long period of time. You can throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and hit the names of lots of investors who aim for 25% per annum with each investment and end up closer to 10%.
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We also tend to undervalue the elementary ideas and overvalue the complicated ones. Most of us get jobs based on some form of specialized knowledge, so this makes sense. We dont think we have much value if we know the things everyone else does, so we focus our effort on developing unique expertise to set ourselves apart. The problem is then that we reject the simple to make sure what we offer cant be contributed by someone else. But simple ideas are of great value because they can help us prevent complex problems.
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Most geniusesespecially those who lead othersprosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities. Andy Benoit6
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There is an old adage that encapsulates this: To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail. Not every problem is a nail. The world is full of complications and interconnections that can only be explained through understanding of multiple models.
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Why mental models? There is no system that can prepare us for all risks. Factors of chance introduce a level of complexity that is not entirely predictable. But being able to draw on a repertoire of mental models can help us minimize risk by understanding the forces that are at play. Likely consequences dont have to be a mystery.
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gets updated, and so too must your circle. There are three key practices needed in order to build and maintain a circle of competence: curiosity and a desire to learn, monitoring, and feedback.
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During their colonial rule of India, the British government began to worry about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi. To reduce the numbers, they instituted a reward for every dead snake brought to officials. In response, Indian citizens dutifully complied and began breeding the snakes to slaughter and bring to officials. The snake problem was worse than when it started because the British officials didnt think at the second level.
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Stupidity is the same as evil if you judge by the results.Margaret Atwood
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business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins. Removing blind spots means we see, interact with, and move closer to understanding reality. We think better. And thinking better is about finding simple processes that help us work through problems from multiple dimensions and perspectives, allowing us to better choose solutions that fit what matters to us. The skill for finding the right solutions for the right problems is one form of wisdom.
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mental model is simply a representation of how something works.
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Most geniuses, especially those who lead others, prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.
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The only way youll know the extent to which you understand reality is to put your ideas and understanding into action. If you dont test your ideas against the real worldkeep contact with the earthhow can you be sure you understand?
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Were much like the blind men in the classic parable of the elephant, going through life trying to explain everything through one limited lens.
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The second thing we can do is to learn how to fail properly. Failing properly has two major components. First, never take a risk that will do you in completely. (Never get taken out of the game completely.) Second, develop the personal resilience to learn from your failures and start again. With these two rules, you can only fail temporarily.
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The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.
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Im no genius. Im smart in spotsbut I stay around those spots. Thomas Watson1
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Were all born rather creative, but during our formative years, it can be beaten out of us by busy parents and teachers. As adults, we rely on convention and what were told because thats easier than breaking things down into first principles and thinking for yourself. Thinking through first principles is a way of taking off the blinders. Most things suddenly seem more possible.
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In the real world you will either understand and adapt to find success or you will fail.
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If you get into the mental habit of relating what youre reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated, you gradually accumulate some wisdom.Charlie Munger11
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Clarifying your thinking and explaining the origins of your ideas. (Why do I think this? What exactly do I think?) Challenging assumptions. (How do I know this is true? What if I thought the opposite?) Looking for evidence. (How can I back this up? What are the sources?) Considering alternative perspectives. (What might others think? How do I know I am correct?) Examining consequences and implications. (What if I am wrong? What are the consequences if I am?) Questioning the original questions. (Why did I think that? Was I correct? What conclusions can I draw from the reasoning process?)
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Its only weeks or months later, when were spending massive amounts of time fixing our mistakes, that they start to increase their burden on us. Then we wonder why we have no time for family and friends and why were so consumed by things outside of our control.
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The core of Bayesian thinking (or Bayesian updating, as it can be called) is this: given that we have limited but useful information about the world, and are constantly encountering new information, we should probably take into account what we already know when we learn something new. As much of it as possible. Bayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions. Statisticians might call it a base rate, taking in outside information about past situations like the one youre in.
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Ignorance more often begets confidence than knowledge.Charles Darwin
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We dont think we have much value if we know the things everyone else does, so we focus our effort on developing unique expertise to set ourselves apart. The problem is then that we reject the simple to make sure what we offer cant be contributed by someone else. But simple ideas are of great value because they can help us prevent complex problems.
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You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. Youve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.
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Im no genius. Im smart in spotsbut I stay around those spots.
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Disciplines, like nations, are a necessary evil that enable human beings of bounded rationality to simplify their goals and reduce their choices to calculable limits. But parochialism is everywhere, and the world badly needs international and interdisciplinary travelers to carry new knowledge from one enclave to another. Herbert Simon
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Nothing has yet been said thats not been said before.
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I believe in the discipline of mastering the best of what other people have figured out.
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In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins.
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While we cant predict which problems will inevitably crop up in life, we can learn time-tested ideas that help us prepare for whatever the world throws at us.
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You only think you know, as a matter of fact. And most of your actions are based on incomplete knowledge and you really dont know what it is all about, or what the purpose of the world is, or know a great deal of other things. It is possible to live and not know.
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Our failures to update from interacting with reality spring primarily from three things: not having the right perspective or vantage point, ego-induced denial, and distance from the consequences of our decisions.
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We dont keep the right records, because we dont really want to know what were good and bad at. Ego is a powerful enemy when it comes to better understanding reality.
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Keeping a journal of your own performance is the easiest and most private way to give self-feedback.
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You only think you know, as a matter of fact. And most of your actions are based on incomplete knowledge and you really dont know what it is all about, or what the purpose of the world is, or know a great deal of other things. It is possible to live and not know.
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Learn at least the basics of the realm youre operating in, while acknowledging that youre a Stranger, not a Lifer. However, keep in mind that basic information is easy to obtain and often gives the acquirer an unwarranted confidence. Talk to someone whose circle of competence in the area is strong. Take the time to do a bit of research to at least define questions you need to ask, and what information you need, to make a good decision. If you ask a person to answer the question for you, theyll be giving you a fish. If you ask them detailed and thoughtful questions, youll learn how to fish. Furthermore, when you need the advice of others, especially in higher stakes situations, ask questions to probe the limits of their circles. Then ask yourself how the situation might influence the information they choose to provide you. Use a broad understanding of the basic mental models of the world to augment your limited understanding of the field in which you find yourself a Stranger. These will help you identify the foundational concepts that would be most useful. These then serve as a guide to help you navigate the situation you are in.
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Ego is a powerful enemy when it comes to better understanding reality.
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How can we do things right from the beginning? We must understand how the world works and adjust our behavior accordingly. Contrary to what were led to believe, thinking better isnt about being a genius. It is about the processes we use to uncover reality and the choices we make once we do.
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When understanding is separated from reality, we lose our powers. Understanding must constantly be tested against reality and updated accordingly. This isnt a box we can tick, a task with a definite beginning and end, but a continuous process.
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A theory is part of empirical science if and only if it conflicts with possible experiences and is therefore in principle falsifiable by experience.
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using conditional probability means being very careful to observe the conditions preceding an event youd like to understand.
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his opponents skulls were used to build a temple to his father. While Antaeus was undefeated and nearly undefeatable, there was a catch to his invulnerability. His epic strength depended on constant contact with the earth. When he lost touch with earth, he lost all of his strength. On the way to the Garden of the Hesperides, Heracles was to fight Antaeus as one of his 12 labors. After a few rounds in which Heracles flung the giant to the ground only to watch him revive, he realized he could not win by using traditional wrestling techniques. Instead, Heracles fought to lift him off the ground. Away from contact with his mother, Antaeus lost his strength and Heracles crushed him.3,4 When understanding is separated from reality, we lose our powers.
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applied inversion. Here is a brief explanation of his process: Identify the problem Define your objective Identify the forces that support change towards your objective Identify the forces that impede change towards the objective Strategize a solution! This may involve both augmenting or adding to the forces in step 3, and reducing or eliminating the forces in step 4.
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Understanding is not enough However, understanding reality is not everything. The pursuit of understanding fuels meaning and adaptation, but this understanding, by itself, is not enough. Understanding only becomes useful when we adjust our behavior and actions accordingly
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I need to listen well so that I hear what is not said.Thuli Madonsela1
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In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins. Removing blind spots means we see, interact with, and move closer to understanding reality. We think better. And thinking better is about finding simple processes that help us work through problems from multiple dimensions and perspectives, allowing us to better choose solutions that fit what matters to us. The skill for finding the right solutions for the right problems is one form of wisdom.
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No one likes to fail. It hurts. But failure carries with it one huge antifragile gift: learning.
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Education doesnt prepare you for the real world.
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Always assuming malice puts you at the center of everyone elses world. This is an incredibly self-centered approach to life. In reality, for every act of malice, there is almost certainly far more ignorance, stupidity, and laziness.
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The quality of your thinking depends on the models that are in your head.
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if you cant prove something wrong, you cant really prove it right either.
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To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.
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A little learning is a dangerous thing;Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,And drinking largely sobers us again.6
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The Five Whys is a method rooted in the behavior of children. Children instinctively think in first principles. Just like us, they want to understand whats happening in the world. To do so, they intuitively break through the fog with a game some parents have come to dread, but which is exceptionally useful for identifying first principles: repeatedly asking why?
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